A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
